Read the Energy Innovation report here: https://energyinnovation.org/report/one-big-beautiful-bill-act/
The Senate’s passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on July 1, 2025, represents one of the most consequential shifts in American energy policy in years. While the name of the bill suggests promise, the energy provisions tucked into the Senate reconciliation version chart a very different course. They accelerate the phase-out of clean energy tax credits, add complicated material sourcing requirements for new projects, and slow the momentum of wind, solar, and battery development across the country. The Senate also removed any repeal of EPA tailpipe rules after the Parliamentarian ruled those provisions outside the bounds of reconciliation.
Energy Innovation Policy and Technology, LLC’s recent modeling of the bill paints a stark picture of its long-term effects. By 2035, the United States is projected to have 340 gigawatts less power generation capacity than it would under current policies. This includes steep losses in wind and solar, which fall by roughly 200 and 150 gigawatts, respectively, along with 17 gigawatts fewer grid batteries. A modest 19 gigawatts of new natural gas generation are expected to appear by 2035, but supply chain bottlenecks mean little additional capacity will come online in the near term. This shortfall lands just as electricity demand is rising rapidly, driven by new data centers, AI processing, and broader electrification.
As cheaper renewable projects are delayed or canceled, power costs climb. Wholesale electricity prices are expected to rise 25 percent by 2030 and 74 percent by 2035. Utilities will pass much of this increase on to consumers. Average households could see energy bills rise by around $130 per year by 2030 and $170 by 2035, though in some states the burden will be much higher. Modeling suggests households in the hardest-hit regions could pay as much as $400 more per year by the mid‑2030s.
The economic consequences extend well beyond higher power bills. The slowdown in renewable deployment and related manufacturing will ripple through the economy. By 2030, the nation could see 760,000 fewer jobs, with employment losses peaking near 900,000 in 2032 before settling at about 700,000 in 2035. These are not abstract numbers; they represent construction workers, factory employees, and technicians whose opportunities will vanish along with delayed or canceled projects. Cumulatively, the lost activity adds up to almost a trillion dollars in GDP reductions by 2035.
Some states will feel the effects more acutely than others. California is expected to see the largest household cost increases, with bills rising by roughly $200 in 2030 and $320 by 2035. The state could lose more than 30 gigawatts of planned wind, solar, and battery capacity along with tens of thousands of jobs. Rhode Island, though smaller, faces meaningful impacts as well, with job losses in the low thousands and millions in reduced annual GDP.
Texas tells a particularly revealing story. Long the national leader in wind and solar deployment, the state has benefited enormously from private investment in rural counties, new tax revenue for schools, and a reputation for low-cost electricity that attracts data centers and industrial facilities. The Senate bill threatens to slow that engine. With fewer renewable projects moving forward, the economic lift to rural Texas will diminish, electricity prices will rise, and the state’s competitive edge in attracting power-hungry businesses could erode.
The narrative that emerges from this analysis is straightforward. By rolling back support for clean energy and tightening project requirements, the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill raises energy costs, suppresses investment, and risks weakening the nation’s industrial and technological competitiveness just as demand for affordable power surges. For Texas and many other states, the bill is more than an abstract policy shift. It represents a retreat from a formula that has driven growth, kept costs low, and supported local economies—and it sets the stage for a decade of higher bills and fewer opportunities.